CASHTRAY Method and sources

Every figure, and where it comes from.

We promised not to lie to you. So here is the arithmetic behind everything shown on the home page: the starting assumption, the sums, the sources, and above all what we do not claim to know.

The starting assumption

It all comes from one profile, chosen once and never changed along the way: a pack of twenty cigarettes at €16.80, smoked every day. If you smoke differently the figures move — the app itself uses yours.

Pack price €16.80
Cigarettes per pack 20
Price of one cigarette €0.840 €16.80 ÷ 20

The money

Per year €6,132.00 €16.80 × 365
Cigarettes per year 7,300 20 × 365

Where the money goes

Almost all of a pack's price is tax. That is also why the amount climbs faster than inflation: the price follows government decisions, not only the manufacturer's.

Tax on a pack at €16.80 €14.36 85.5 % of the price, excise and VAT together. It is the share published for France by the Tax Foundation Europe as of 1 January 2026, used as it stands — and it is the one the home page applies, so the two pages cannot contradict each other.
Tax over a year €5,241.63 €6,132.00 × 85.5 %
Maker and shop, over a year €890.37 €6,132.00 − €5,241.63. Worked from the exact share, not from the rounded figure above.

This share varies from one country to the next. The calculation above is the one for the country shown on the home page, and it changes with it.

Time spent smoking

Counted at five minutes a cigarette — the low end of the usual range, which runs from five to seven minutes. At seven minutes every figure below rises by about 40%. We keep the low value: when an assumption flatters the argument, take the one that flatters it least.

Per day 1 h 40 20 × 5 min
Per year 25 days 7 300 × 5 min = 36 500 min = 608 h
Over twenty years 507 days 146 000 cigarettes × 5 min, which is a year and five months
In hours 12 166 h Watch the units, that is the trap in this figure. 12 166 h of elapsed time back to back = 507 days = 1 year and 5 months. It is NOT 7.6 years: that number appears if you divide by a working year (1 607 h), so it counts working years, not years of life. The home page states only the per-day form, 1 h 40, which cannot be misread.

Life expectancy

The ten-year figure is not ours, and it is not the time spent smoking multiplied out. They are two different measurements: one counts the act, the other the consequence. Two large independent cohorts land on the same order of magnitude.

Doll et al., BMJ, 2004 — fifty years of follow-up of British doctors ≈ 10 years persistent smokers die about ten years earlier than those who never smoked
Jha et al., NEJM, 2013 > 10 years life expectancy shortened by more than ten years among current smokers
French sources 8.3 – 13 years depending on the age and the cohort used

This is a population average, not a prediction about a person. And it is largely recoverable: according to Jha, quitting between 25 and 34 gives back about ten years, between 35 and 44 about nine, between 45 and 54 about six.

Invested over twenty years

The idea is simple: what you no longer spend, you put away at the end of each month. The calculation is an ordinary annuity, compounded monthly.

Monthly deposit €511.00 €6,132.00 ÷ 12
Monthly rate 0,41667 % 5% ÷ 12, over 240 months
Total after twenty years €210,038 511.000 × ((1.00416667^240 − 1) ÷ 0.00416667), factor 411.034
Of which out of your pocket €122,640 511.000 × 240
Of which interest €87,398 42 % of the total — the part tobacco collected on top of the sum itself

The home page shows€210,000, rounded down to the multiple of 5 000 below — never up, since this is a projection and not a promise. The exact amount is €210,038.21. A figure to the penny would give a false impression of precision about something that remains an assumption — whereas in the app, where it is your real money, nothing is ever rounded.

The flat

No source publishes an average price for “France excluding Paris”. The national average for flats — 3 918 €/m² in August 2026 — includes the Paris region at 6 420 €/m², which pulls it up. So we work region by region, and state a floor area rather than just “a flat”.

MarketAverage priceFloor area
Saint-Étienne1 249 €/m²120 m²
Limoges1 579 €/m²95 m²
Centre-Val de Loire1 730 €/m²87 m²
Hauts-de-France1 823 €/m²82 m²
Normandie2 020 €/m²74 m²
Le Mans2 036 €/m²74 m²
Nouvelle-Aquitaine2 066 €/m²73 m²
Bretagne / Occitanie≈ 2 365 €/m²64 m²
Pays de la Loire2 442 €/m²62 m²
Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes2 625 €/m²57 m²
Nantes / Lille≈ 3 368 €/m²45 m²
Rennes / Strasbourg≈ 3 814 €/m²39 m²

Areas calculated on €150,340, that is the French €162,530 less about 7.5% in conveyancing fees on an older property. The page uses75 m², a value that sits in the middle of the table and cannot be accused of having been picked to flatter. In a large city the same sum buys a one-bedroom: the table is there so everyone can place themselves.

The health milestones

The ten milestones shown in the app and on the page are widely published public-health markers, used as they stand and never reworded for impact. None is brought forward in time, none is rounded, and none promises a medical outcome. Cashtray is a counter, not a treatment: to quit, a health professional will always be more use than an app.

What we do not claim

  • The 5% is an assumption, not a promise.No investment owes anyone 5% a year. The calculation also ignores management fees and tax: a 1% annual fee would eat about €22,616 of the total.
  • The amounts are nominal.We do not adjust for inflation. In the other direction, we also assume the pack stays at €16.80 for twenty years, when its price rises faster than inflation — the two effects pull opposite ways.
  • The “thousand people” projection describes nobody.It is arithmetic on an assumption. Cashtray has no server, collects nothing, and therefore has no real total to show. The day there is one, it will replace this and be labelled as real.
  • The screens shown are renders of the interface, not screenshots of an app already on the stores.
  • Property prices vary between sourcesby about 10%. The PACA region, for instance, appears at 3 607 €/m² on one site and 4 180 €/m² on another.

Sources

  1. Doll R, Peto R, Boreham J, Sutherland I. Mortality in relation to smoking: 50 years’ observations on male British doctors. BMJ, 2004 — British doctors cohort
  2. Jha P et al. 21st-Century Hazards of Smoking and Benefits of Cessation in the United States. N Engl J Med, 2013 — NEJM · PubMed
  3. Tabac info service — a smoker's life expectancy
  4. Tobacco taxation —Direction générale des douanes et droits indirects · 2026 price breakdown
  5. Training hours —airline pilot licence (1 500 h of flight) · ATPL theory, 600 to 800 h · state nursing diploma, 4 200 h
  6. Property prices, August 2026 —SeLoger · MeilleursAgents · efficity · Century 21
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